Prime Minister Mark Carney has suggested that Canada’s years of immigration cuts could be ending, though nothing in that remark changes any program or target as of today. In an interview with The New York Times, reported by The Canadian Press on September 29, 2026, Carney said his government is “getting the system under control” and that the question now is “when do we resume some controlled increase in the population, which is the nature of Canada.” Those are the words of a prime minister describing a direction of travel, not an announcement of new admissions numbers.

What Was Signalled, and What Has Been Officially Announced?

Carney signalled openness to higher immigration levels at some future point; IRCC has not published any revised target. The remarks came during a conversation about Canada’s broader economic relationship with the United States, where Carney also referenced “pressure on housing” as a factor the government still weighs, according to Global News. He denied that the comments were a response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s public criticism of Canadian immigration policy that same week.

Reaction split along predictable lines. Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner called the comments “irresponsible” and argued targets should go “way down” rather than up, citing pressure on housing, health care and jobs, as reported by the CBC. The C.D. Howe Institute’s immigration targets council, which includes former Alberta premier Jason Kenney, has recommended the opposite path: continued reductions in arrivals over the next three years, according to Global News. No legislative or regulatory change has followed Carney’s comments.

When Could Any Change Take Effect?

The earliest practical moment for a shift would be the next Immigration Levels Plan, which the government is required by law to table roughly once a year. Carney’s interview landed just over a month before that deadline, Global News noted, which means the 2027-2029 plan is the first document that could reflect any change in direction. Until that plan is tabled, the 380,000 permanent resident target for 2026 through 2028 remains the operative number, and prospective applicants should treat any “increase” as a political signal rather than a confirmed policy shift. We’d caution against reading Carney’s comments as a preview of looser eligibility rules; levels plans set admissions ceilings, not who qualifies under a given program.

What Are Canada’s Current Immigration Targets?

Canada’s 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets a permanent resident target of 380,000 admissions per year, alongside sharply reduced targets for new temporary residents. The plan, published by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, calls for 155,000 new student arrivals (49% fewer than the prior year’s target), 230,000 new temporary worker arrivals (37% fewer) and 380,000 new permanent residents (4% fewer than the previous plan). Permanent economic immigration is set to account for 64% of all admissions in 2027 and 2028, which IRCC describes as the highest proportion in decades.

How Do the Latest Targets Compare with Earlier Plans?

The current targets represent a deliberate pullback from the rapid post-pandemic expansion, not a return to growth. Canada had been increasing arrivals to address post-pandemic labour shortages before shifting toward reduction under the prior government, and the most recent plans have intensified that contraction, the CBC reported. Temporary resident arrivals alone were cut by 43%, from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026, according to an analysis of the 2026-2028 plan. The government has also set a target for temporary residents to make up five per cent of Canada’s population, down from a peak above seven per cent in October 2024, as the CBC reported. Statistics Canada figures cited in that reporting show the population grew by just half a percentage point between July 2025 and July 2026, with temporary resident numbers falling by roughly 154,000 over the same period, the largest such decrease since the early 1970s.

What Is the Difference Between Targets and Actual Admissions?

A levels plan sets a ceiling on admissions, and IRCC’s own inventory data shows that ceiling, not processing speed, is often the real bottleneck. IRCC reported more than one million permanent residence applications in its inventory as of May 2026, with only 47% falling within published service standards, according to reporting on Canada’s PR backlog. The gap between applications on file and spaces available under the levels plan can be severe: federal business programs like the Start-Up Visa had roughly 45,600 applications in inventory against a combined 2026 admissions target of just 500. For readers tracking how these targets translate into real waiting times, our own look at Canada’s 2026 immigration targets breaks down what the numbers mean for applicants already in the queue.

Which Permanent Residence Pathways Could Be Affected?

Any future increase in overall admissions would need to flow through specific programs, since Canada does not simply add people to a general pool. Express Entry, the Provincial Nominee Program, Canada’s skilled trades categories and the Start-Up Visa each operate under their own allocation within the broader levels plan, and a higher national target would still require the government to decide which streams get more room.

Could Express Entry Invitations Change?

Express Entry invitation volumes are already under review independent of Carney’s comments, through a planned overhaul that predates the New York Times interview. IRCC has proposed collapsing the Federal Skilled Worker Program, Canadian Experience Class and Federal Skilled Trades Program into a single streamlined program, with a redesigned Comprehensive Ranking System that would award tiered bonus points to occupations paying at least 1.3, 1.5 or two times the national median wage, according to CIC News. Consultations on that reform closed in May 2026, and officials have set a 12 to 18 month rollout window, though some elements, including the high-wage factor, could arrive sooner. Separately, IRCC ran public consultations through September 1, 2026, on four focus areas for category-based selection in 2027: H-1B visa holders from the United States, researchers, candidates under the International Talent Attraction Strategy and workers under the Global Talent Stream. In 2027, Canada plans to admit 122,000 permanent residents through Express Entry specifically.

What Might Change for Provincial Nominees and Entrepreneurs?

Provincial Nominee Program admissions have already moved in 2026, independent of any Carney-era increase, with PNP admissions rising to 91,500 and Ontario replacing nearly all of its previous streams, according to a review of new PR pathways. Entrepreneur-focused programs tell a different story: the Start-Up Visa Program alone carried 45,600 applications in processing inventory as of January 31, 2026, against a federal business admissions target of only 500 for the year, IRCC data shows. A higher national target would not resolve that mismatch unless Ottawa specifically expands the business immigration allocation. Readers weighing which route fits their background can review our breakdown of the changing programs within Canadian immigration for more on how individual streams are evolving.

What Would Higher Levels Mean for Students and Workers?

A higher permanent resident target would not automatically loosen study permit or work permit rules, since those fall under separate temporary resident targets that the 2026-2028 plan has already cut sharply. International students and foreign workers currently face a combined temporary resident ceiling that dropped 43% this year, and any future increase in permanent admissions would not reverse that on its own.

Would Study Permit or Work Permit Rules Change?

Study permit and work permit volumes are governed by the temporary resident targets in the levels plan, set at 155,000 new student arrivals and 230,000 new temporary worker arrivals for 2026, according to IRCC. Carney’s remarks about a “controlled increase” referred to population growth broadly and did not single out study or work permit categories. Anyone currently applying for a study permit or post-graduation work permit should work from the rules in force now, not from an anticipated change that has not been published. Our guide to applying for a post-graduate work permit walks through the current requirements for that transition.

Could More Temporary Residents Transition to Permanent Residence?

IRCC has already built two one-time initiatives into the current plan aimed at moving select temporary residents to permanent status, which shows the mechanism a future increase would likely use. One offers permanent residence to roughly 115,000 eligible protected persons over 2026 and 2027; the other fast-tracks about 33,000 skilled temporary workers in specific in-demand sectors, with a focus on rural areas, according to IRCC. If Carney’s government does raise overall levels, similar targeted transition pathways are the likely tool, rather than a blanket expansion open to every temporary resident. Workers and students hoping to move from temporary to permanent status can see how that process works in practice through our piece on moving from temporary visa to permanent stay.

Would Visitors, Families or Citizens Be Affected?

Visitor rules, family sponsorship and Canadian citizenship sit outside the immigration levels discussion in different ways, and Carney’s comments touched none of them directly. Family sponsorship counts toward the overall permanent resident target, while visiting and citizenship operate under entirely separate legal frameworks that a levels plan does not govern.

How Does Family Sponsorship Fit into Immigration Levels?

Family sponsorship is one of the admission categories counted inside the 380,000 annual permanent resident target, which means any future increase could, in principle, create more room for sponsored family members alongside economic immigrants. IRCC has already tightened some family-related policies this year: the department ended a special undeclared family member policy over “integrity concerns,” according to a report on the policy change, and closed the Hong Kong family reunification pathways to new applications as of August 31, 2026, per IRCC’s own notice. Humanitarian and family reunification streams tied to Hong Kong, Ukraine and Sudan carry some of the longest waits in the system, with IRCC warning some applicants could face delays of “upwards of approximately 50 years” given current admissions spaces, according to reporting on PR waiting lists. Families currently navigating sponsorship should check our guide on tips for a successful sponsorship application before relying on any anticipated policy loosening.

Why Are Visiting and Citizenship Separate Questions?

Visitor visas, electronic travel authorizations and super visas fall under temporary entry rules that are distinct from the permanent resident targets Carney was discussing, and citizenship applications follow their own statutory process under the Citizenship Act. Changes to how the super visa’s income requirement is calculated took effect in March 2026, separate from any levels plan debate, according to IRCC’s own notice. Citizenship by descent and existing citizens’ status are not affected by immigration levels discussions at all, since those questions turn on legal eligibility rather than annual admission ceilings. Readers curious about less conventional citizenship routes can see our overview of unusual pathways to Canadian citizenship for context on how that process differs from permanent residence.

What Should Prospective Applicants Do Now?

The most useful step right now is treating Carney’s comments as a signal worth watching, not a reason to change an application strategy already built around current rules. Anyone planning a move to Canada in 2026 should keep working from the published 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan and existing program criteria until IRCC confirms otherwise.

How Can You Check Which Program Fits Your Circumstances?

Matching a profile to the right pathway starts with the program’s actual criteria, not with assumptions about where targets might head next. Express Entry, the Provincial Nominee Program, family sponsorship and business pathways each carry distinct eligibility rules, processing patterns and current inventory levels, and a program that looks promising on paper can still carry a multi-year wait if its inventory has outpaced its admissions space. Our overview of exploring multiple pathways to Canadian immigration success lays out how to weigh those options against a specific profile, and the guide to immigration and welcome to Canada covers the basics for newcomers sorting through their first choice of program.

What Should You Verify Before Submitting an Application?

Before filing anything, confirm the program’s current target, its processing inventory and whether the specific stream remains open, since several pathways, including the Hong Kong permanent residence routes, have closed to new applicants this year even as overall levels stayed flat. Check IRCC’s published service standards against the program in question, and verify that supporting documents meet current requirements rather than rules from a prior levels plan. Our checklist for staying up to date on Canada’s changing immigration laws and policies is a practical starting point for applicants who want to confirm details before they submit, and our piece on tips to expedite your immigration application process covers the preparation steps that tend to prevent avoidable delays.

If you have any questions on this – let us know!